eprintid: 10152166
rev_number: 17
eprint_status: archive
userid: 699
dir: disk0/10/15/21/66
datestamp: 2022-07-19 10:45:03
lastmod: 2024-10-25 15:46:36
status_changed: 2022-12-07 14:31:36
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
sword_depositor: 699
creators_name: Gao, Chuanyu
creators_name: Peters, Max
creators_name: Kurver, Piet
creators_name: Anbarasan, Thineskrishna
creators_name: Jayaraajan, Keerthanaa
creators_name: Manning, Todd
creators_name: Cashman, Sophia
creators_name: Nambiar, Arjun
creators_name: Cumberbatch, Marcus
creators_name: Lamb, Benjamin W
creators_name: Pickard, Robert
creators_name: Erotocritou, Paul
creators_name: Smith, Daron
creators_name: Kasivisvanathan, Veeru
creators_name: Shah, Taimur T
creators_name: BURST Collaborative MIMIC Study Group, .
title: Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic
ispublished: pub
subjects: UCH
subjects: WHITT
divisions: C10
divisions: G88
divisions: B02
divisions: UCL
divisions: D16
keywords: ureteric colic, predict, spontaneous stone passage, nomogram, multivariable, #KidneyStones, #EndoUrology, #UroStone, #Urology
note: © 2022 The Authors. BJU International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJU International.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
abstract: Objectives:
To develop a nomogram that could predict spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic who are suitable for conservative management.

Patients and Methods:
A 2517 patient dataset was utilised from an international multicentre cohort study (MIMIC, A Multi-centre Cohort Study Evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers In Patients Presenting with Acute Ureteric Colic) of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic across 71 secondary care hospitals in the UK, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Inclusion criteria mandated a non-contrast computed tomography of the kidneys, ureters, and bladder. SSP was defined as the ‘absence of the need for intervention’. The model was developed using logistic regression and backwards selection (to achieve lowest Akaike's information criterion) in a subset from 2009–2015 (n = 1728) and temporally validated on a subset from 2016–2017 (n = 789).

Results:
Of the 2517 patients, 1874 had SSP (74.5%). The mean (SD) age was 47 (14.7) years and 1892 were male (75.2%). At the end of the modelling process, gender: male (odds ratio [OR] 0.8, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64–1.01, P = 0.07), neutrophil count (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06, P = 0.08), hydronephrosis (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.59–1.05, P = 0.1), hydroureter (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.97–1.75, P = 0.08), stone size >5–7 mm (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.16–0.25, P < 0.001), stone size >7 mm (OR 0.11, 95% CI 0.08–0.15, P < 0.001), middle ureter stone position (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.43–0.81, P = 0.001), upper ureter stone position (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.25–0.39, P < 0.001), medical expulsive therapy use (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.1–1.67, P = 0.001), oral nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) use (OR 1.3, 95% CI 0.99–1.71, P = 0.06), and rectal NSAID use (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.9–1.53, P = 0.24) remained. The concordance-statistic (C-statistic) was 0.77 (95% CI 0.75–0.80) and a nomogram was developed based on these.

Conclusion:
The presented nomogram is available to use as an on-line calculator via www.BURSTurology.com and could allow clinicians and patients to make a more informed decision on pursuing conservative management vs early intervention.
date: 2022-12-01
date_type: published
publisher: Wiley
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1111/bju.15839
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1964753
doi: 10.1111/bju.15839
medium: Print-Electronic
lyricists_name: Kasivisvanathan, Veeru
lyricists_id: VKASI35
actors_name: Kasivisvanathan, Veeru
actors_id: VKASI35
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: BJU International
volume: 130
number: 6
pagerange: 823-831
event_location: England
citation:        Gao, Chuanyu;    Peters, Max;    Kurver, Piet;    Anbarasan, Thineskrishna;    Jayaraajan, Keerthanaa;    Manning, Todd;    Cashman, Sophia;                                     ... BURST Collaborative MIMIC Study Group, .; + view all <#>        Gao, Chuanyu;  Peters, Max;  Kurver, Piet;  Anbarasan, Thineskrishna;  Jayaraajan, Keerthanaa;  Manning, Todd;  Cashman, Sophia;  Nambiar, Arjun;  Cumberbatch, Marcus;  Lamb, Benjamin W;  Pickard, Robert;  Erotocritou, Paul;  Smith, Daron;  Kasivisvanathan, Veeru;  Shah, Taimur T;  BURST Collaborative MIMIC Study Group, .;   - view fewer <#>    (2022)    Nomogram predicting the probability of spontaneous stone passage in patients presenting with acute ureteric colic.                   BJU International , 130  (6)   pp. 823-831.    10.1111/bju.15839 <https://doi.org/10.1111/bju.15839>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10152166/1/Kasivisvanathan_BJU%20International%20-%202022%20-%20Gao%20-%20Nomogram%20predicting%20the%20probability%20of%20spontaneous%20stone%20passage%20in%20patients%20presenting.pdf