eprintid: 10150985 rev_number: 7 eprint_status: archive userid: 699 dir: disk0/10/15/09/85 datestamp: 2022-06-30 10:52:38 lastmod: 2022-06-30 10:52:38 status_changed: 2022-06-30 10:52:38 type: article metadata_visibility: show sword_depositor: 699 creators_name: Kahan, Brennan C creators_name: Morris, Tim P creators_name: Goulão, Beatriz creators_name: Carpenter, James title: Estimands for factorial trials ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: J38 divisions: D65 divisions: B02 keywords: 2 × 2, ICH-E9 addendum, estimand, factorial trial, randomized controlled trial note: © 2022 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) abstract: Factorial trials offer an efficient method to evaluate multiple interventions in a single trial, however the use of additional treatments can obscure research objectives, leading to inappropriate analytical methods and interpretation of results. We define a set of estimands for factorial trials, and describe a framework for applying these estimands, with the aim of clarifying trial objectives and ensuring appropriate primary and sensitivity analyses are chosen. This framework is intended for use in factorial trials where the intent is to conduct "two-trials-in-one" (ie, to separately evaluate the effects of treatments A and B), and is comprised of four steps: (i) specifying how additional treatment(s) (eg, treatment B) will be handled in the estimand, and how intercurrent events affecting the additional treatment(s) will be handled; (ii) designating the appropriate factorial estimator as the primary analysis strategy; (iii) evaluating the interaction to assess the plausibility of the assumptions underpinning the factorial estimator; and (iv) performing a sensitivity analysis using an appropriate multiarm estimator to evaluate to what extent departures from the underlying assumption of no interaction may affect results. We show that adjustment for other factors is necessary for noncollapsible effect measures (such as odds ratio), and through a trial re-analysis we find that failure to consider the estimand could lead to inappropriate interpretation of results. We conclude that careful use of the estimands framework clarifies research objectives and reduces the risk of misinterpretation of trial results, and should become a standard part of both the protocol and reporting of factorial trials. date: 2022-06-25 date_type: published publisher: Wiley official_url: https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9510 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1963503 doi: 10.1002/sim.9510 medium: Print-Electronic lyricists_name: Morris, Timothy lyricists_name: Kahan, Brennan lyricists_name: Carpenter, James lyricists_id: TNMOR17 lyricists_id: BKAHA03 lyricists_id: JCARP26 actors_name: Gibb, Diana actors_name: Payne, Roxanne actors_id: MGIBB48 actors_id: RPAYN74 actors_role: owner actors_role: impersonator funding_acknowledgements: MC_UU_00004/09 [UK MRC]; MC_UU_00004/07 [UK MRC] full_text_status: public publication: Statistics in Medicine event_location: England citation: Kahan, Brennan C; Morris, Tim P; Goulão, Beatriz; Carpenter, James; (2022) Estimands for factorial trials. Statistics in Medicine 10.1002/sim.9510 <https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.9510>. (In press). Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10150985/1/Statistics%20in%20Medicine%20-%202022%20-%20Kahan%20-%20Estimands%20for%20factorial%20trials.pdf