TY  - INPR
ID  - discovery10147943
KW  - Science & Technology
KW  -  Physical Sciences
KW  -  Geosciences
KW  -  Multidisciplinary
KW  -  Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
KW  -  Water Resources
KW  -  Geology
KW  -  Paired comparison
KW  -  Stakeholders
KW  -  Natural hazards
KW  -  Operational hazards
KW  -  MODEL
KW  -  INFRASTRUCTURE
KW  -  SYSTEMS
KW  -  CITIES
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05287-x
A1  - Ioannou, Ioanna
A1  - Cadena, Jaime E
A1  - Aspinall, Willy
A1  - Lange, David
A1  - Honfi, Daniel
A1  - Rossetto, Tiziana
EP  - 23
N2  - Risk assessment in communities or regions typically relies on the determination of hazard scenarios and an evaluation of their impact on local systems and structures. One of the challenges of risk assessment for infrastructure operators is how to identify the most critical scenarios that are likely to represent unacceptable risks to such assets in a given time frame. This study develops a novel approach for prioritizing hazards for the risk assessment of infrastructure. Central to the proposed methodology is an expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison which is based on a formal mathematical technique for quantifying the range and variance in the judgements of a group of stakeholders. The methodology is applied here to identify and rank natural and operational hazard scenarios that could cause serious disruption or have disastrous effects to the infrastructure in the transnational Øresund region over a period of 5 years. The application highlighted substantial divergences of views among the stakeholders on identifying a single ?most critical? natural or operational hazard scenario. Despite these differences, it was possible to flag up certain cases as critical among the natural hazard scenarios, and others among the operational hazards.
AV  - public
JF  - Natural Hazards
TI  - Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement
SN  - 0921-030X
Y1  - 2022/04/20/
N1  - This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
PB  - SPRINGER
ER  -