eprintid: 10140909
rev_number: 12
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/14/09/09
datestamp: 2022-01-04 16:30:37
lastmod: 2022-01-04 16:30:37
status_changed: 2022-01-04 16:30:37
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Hauter, J
title: How the war began: Conceptualizing conflict escalation in Ukraine's Donbas
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B03
divisions: D92
keywords: war; armed conflict; escalation; critical junctures; process tracing; Ukraine; Donbas
note: © Jakob Hauter, 2021
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license
abstract: This article proposes a new theoretical framework based on conflict escalation theory and the concept of critical junctures to facilitate a more transparent analysis of the war in Ukraine's Donbas. It argues that researchers have proposed a variety of causes of the outbreak of violence in the region. However, in the absence of an overarching theoretical framework, it remains difficult to analyse the interplay of these causes and compare their explanatory power. In response, this article develops a theory-guided escalation sequence model. According to this model, the conflict's formative phase consisted of an escalation sequence that lasted from April until August 2014 and comprised six critical junctures. This article argues that attempts to explain the conflict should be evaluated and compared in terms of their ability to explain these critical junctures. It concludes that similar escalation sequence models could improve research on armed conflict beyond the case of the Donbas.
date: 2021-01-01
date_type: published
official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.30965/18763324-20201380
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1911271
doi: 10.30965/18763324-20201380
lyricists_name: Hauter, Jakob
lyricists_id: HAUTE67
actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette
actors_id: BFFLY94
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Soviet and Post Soviet Review
volume: 48
number: 2
pagerange: 135-163
citation:        Hauter, J;      (2021)    How the war began: Conceptualizing conflict escalation in Ukraine's Donbas.                   Soviet and Post Soviet Review , 48  (2)   pp. 135-163.    10.30965/18763324-20201380 <https://doi.org/10.30965/18763324-20201380>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140909/1/%5B18763324%20-%20The%20Soviet%20and%20Post-Soviet%20Review%5D%20How%20the%20War%20Began_%20Conceptualizing%20Conflict%20Escalation%20in%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Donbas.pdf