eprintid: 10140909 rev_number: 12 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/14/09/09 datestamp: 2022-01-04 16:30:37 lastmod: 2022-01-04 16:30:37 status_changed: 2022-01-04 16:30:37 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Hauter, J title: How the war began: Conceptualizing conflict escalation in Ukraine's Donbas ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B03 divisions: D92 keywords: war; armed conflict; escalation; critical junctures; process tracing; Ukraine; Donbas note: © Jakob Hauter, 2021 This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license abstract: This article proposes a new theoretical framework based on conflict escalation theory and the concept of critical junctures to facilitate a more transparent analysis of the war in Ukraine's Donbas. It argues that researchers have proposed a variety of causes of the outbreak of violence in the region. However, in the absence of an overarching theoretical framework, it remains difficult to analyse the interplay of these causes and compare their explanatory power. In response, this article develops a theory-guided escalation sequence model. According to this model, the conflict's formative phase consisted of an escalation sequence that lasted from April until August 2014 and comprised six critical junctures. This article argues that attempts to explain the conflict should be evaluated and compared in terms of their ability to explain these critical junctures. It concludes that similar escalation sequence models could improve research on armed conflict beyond the case of the Donbas. date: 2021-01-01 date_type: published official_url: http://dx.doi.org/10.30965/18763324-20201380 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1911271 doi: 10.30965/18763324-20201380 lyricists_name: Hauter, Jakob lyricists_id: HAUTE67 actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette actors_id: BFFLY94 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Soviet and Post Soviet Review volume: 48 number: 2 pagerange: 135-163 citation: Hauter, J; (2021) How the war began: Conceptualizing conflict escalation in Ukraine's Donbas. Soviet and Post Soviet Review , 48 (2) pp. 135-163. 10.30965/18763324-20201380 <https://doi.org/10.30965/18763324-20201380>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10140909/1/%5B18763324%20-%20The%20Soviet%20and%20Post-Soviet%20Review%5D%20How%20the%20War%20Began_%20Conceptualizing%20Conflict%20Escalation%20in%20Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Donbas.pdf