eprintid: 10140719 rev_number: 23 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/14/07/19 datestamp: 2023-02-14 14:12:53 lastmod: 2023-10-13 12:16:13 status_changed: 2023-10-13 12:16:13 type: working_paper metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Adda, J creators_name: Lechene, V title: Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behaviour ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B03 divisions: C03 divisions: F24 keywords: Health, Duration, Smoking, Selection, Mortality, Life Expectancy, Causality note: This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: This paper considers the identfication of the effect of tobacco on mortality. If individuals select into smoking according to some unobserved health characteristic, then estimates of the effect of tobacco on health that do not account for this are biased. We show that using information on mortality, morbidity and smoking, it is possible to control for this selection effect and obtain consistent estimates of the effect of smoking on mortality. We implement our method on Swedish data. We show that there is selection into smoking, and considerable dispersion around the average effect, so that health policies that aim at decreasing smoking prevalence and quantities smoked might have less effect in terms of average number of years of life gained than previously estimated. We also empirically show that selection into smoking has increased over the last fifty years with the availability of information on the dangers of smoking, so that future studies comparing smokers and non smokers will spuriously reveal a worsening effect of tobacco on health if they fail to control for selection. date: 2004 date_type: published publisher: University of Oxford, Department of Economics official_url: https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/184.html oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 85675 lyricists_name: Lechene, Valerie lyricists_id: VLECH86 actors_name: Lechene, Valerie actors_id: VLECH86 actors_role: owner full_text_status: none series: Economics Series Working Papers number: 184 place_of_pub: Oxford, UK book_title: Oxford Department of Economics Working Paper 184 citation: Adda, J; Lechene, V; (2004) Smoking and Endogenous Mortality: Does Heterogeneity in Life Expectancy Explain Differences in Smoking Behaviour. (Economics Series Working Papers 184). University of Oxford, Department of Economics: Oxford, UK. Green open access