eprintid: 10136577 rev_number: 14 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/13/65/77 datestamp: 2022-02-23 16:58:52 lastmod: 2022-02-23 16:58:52 status_changed: 2022-02-23 16:58:52 type: working_paper metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Anders, J creators_name: Macmillan, L title: The unequal scarring effects of a recession on young people's life chances ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B16 divisions: B14 divisions: J82 divisions: KC6 keywords: Scarring; Recession; Unemployment effects; Wage losses; COVID-19 note: This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Large parts of the economy were suspended from late March - June 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK economy shrank by 20% in April 2020 as a result (ONS, 2020a). Given a 2% decline in GDP in the first three months of 2020, a severe recession is inevitable. NIESR's main-case scenario is a 7% economic contraction across 2020 (Lenoel & Young, 2020). The UK Government has sought to buffer the economic effects of this crisis through support such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), allowing employers to place employees on "furlough". However, such schemes are designed to support those already in work, plus likely effects of the increase in employer contributions in August, suggests young people face an extremely challenging job market. Job vacancies were estimated to be 637,000 in February-April 2020; this is a fall of 170,000 compared to the previous 3-month period, which is the largest fall since comparable records began (ONS, 2020b). Henehan (2020) estimates that an additional 640,000 18-24-year-olds could find themselves unemployed this year alone. This note summarises the evidence on the effects of youth unemployment on later outcomes, of father's unemployment on child outcomes, and the unequal effects of recessions on life chances. It then highlights what the literature suggests about how policymakers could buffer some of these negative consequences, and why this may save money in the long run. date: 2020-06 date_type: published publisher: UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities official_url: https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucl:cepeob:6 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1894240 lyricists_name: Anders, Jacob lyricists_name: Macmillan, Lindsey lyricists_id: JDAND41 lyricists_id: LMACM78 actors_name: Anders, Jacob actors_id: JDAND41 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public series: CEPEO Briefing Note Series number: 6 place_of_pub: London, UK pages: 6 citation: Anders, J; Macmillan, L; (2020) The unequal scarring effects of a recession on young people's life chances. (CEPEO Briefing Note Series 6). UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities: London, UK. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10136577/1/cepeobn6.pdf