eprintid: 10123654
rev_number: 16
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/12/36/54
datestamp: 2021-03-10 18:37:04
lastmod: 2021-12-05 00:31:02
status_changed: 2021-03-10 18:37:04
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Sturniolo, S
creators_name: Waites, W
creators_name: Colbourn, T
creators_name: Manheim, D
creators_name: Panovska-Griffiths, J
title: Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B02
divisions: D01
note: © 2021 Sturniolo et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
abstract: Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks.
date: 2021-03
date_type: published
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008633
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1852167
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008633
pii: PCOMPBIOL-D-20-00860
lyricists_name: Colbourn, Timothy
lyricists_name: Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
lyricists_id: TECOL04
lyricists_id: JPANO44
actors_name: Flynn, Bernadette
actors_id: BFFLY94
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: PLoS Computational Biology
volume: 17
number: 3
article_number: e1008633
event_location: United States
issn: 1553-7358
citation:        Sturniolo, S;    Waites, W;    Colbourn, T;    Manheim, D;    Panovska-Griffiths, J;      (2021)    Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models.                   PLoS Computational Biology , 17  (3)    , Article e1008633.  10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008633 <https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008633>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10123654/1/journal.pcbi.1008633.pdf