eprintid: 10114052 rev_number: 28 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/11/40/52 datestamp: 2020-11-09 12:01:50 lastmod: 2021-10-06 22:44:34 status_changed: 2020-11-11 11:55:29 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Krystallis, I creators_name: Locatelli, G creators_name: Murtagh, N title: Futureproofing Complex Infrastructure Projects Using Real Options ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C04 divisions: F37 keywords: Uncertainty, Complex projects, Flexibility, Infrastructure note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions. abstract: Existing project performance measures in the infrastructure sector focus on construction performance (time, cost, quality) and pay less attention to lifecycle performance. The consequence of this shortsighted perspective is that decisions taken early lead to poorer solutions. Infrastructure that should last centuries quickly becomes inadequate, leading to costly reconfigurations. Real options reasoning can help managers to overcome this issue by unlocking lifecycle performance thinking in complex infrastructure projects. Real options reasoning enables managers to explore the value of flexibility by employing futureproofing strategies during the development process. From analysis of interviews with experts in healthcare infrastructure, we observed that projects that led to obsolescence were developed using tight design briefs and were focused on capital targets, and decision-makers were less invested in the concept of futureproofing. On the other hand, projects that were futureproofed followed a loosely-defined design brief and shifted focus towards whole-life targets. We make five recommendations for futureproofed infrastructure. date: 2020-11-10 date_type: published publisher: IEEE official_url: https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1826145 doi: 10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446 lyricists_name: Krystallis, Ilias lyricists_name: Murtagh, Niamh lyricists_id: IKRYS05 lyricists_id: NMMUR88 actors_name: Krystallis, Ilias actors_id: IKRYS05 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: IEEE Engineering Management Review citation: Krystallis, I; Locatelli, G; Murtagh, N; (2020) Futureproofing Complex Infrastructure Projects Using Real Options. IEEE Engineering Management Review 10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446 <https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446>. (In press). Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10114052/3/Krystallis_Futureproofing%20Complex%20Infrastructure%20Projects%20Using%20Real%20Options_AAM.pdf