eprintid: 10114052
rev_number: 28
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/11/40/52
datestamp: 2020-11-09 12:01:50
lastmod: 2021-10-06 22:44:34
status_changed: 2020-11-11 11:55:29
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Krystallis, I
creators_name: Locatelli, G
creators_name: Murtagh, N
title: Futureproofing Complex Infrastructure Projects Using Real Options
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F37
keywords: Uncertainty, Complex projects, Flexibility, Infrastructure
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher's terms and conditions.
abstract: Existing project performance measures in the infrastructure sector focus on construction performance (time, cost, quality) and pay less attention to lifecycle performance. The consequence of this shortsighted perspective is that decisions taken early lead to poorer solutions. Infrastructure that should last centuries quickly becomes inadequate, leading to costly reconfigurations. Real options reasoning can help managers to overcome this issue by unlocking lifecycle performance thinking in complex infrastructure projects. Real options reasoning enables managers to explore the value of flexibility by employing futureproofing strategies during the development process. From analysis of interviews with experts in healthcare infrastructure, we observed that projects that led to obsolescence were developed using tight design briefs and were focused on capital targets, and decision-makers were less invested in the concept of futureproofing. On the other hand, projects that were futureproofed followed a loosely-defined design brief and shifted focus towards whole-life targets. We make five recommendations for futureproofed infrastructure.
date: 2020-11-10
date_type: published
publisher: IEEE
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446
oa_status: green
full_text_type: other
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1826145
doi: 10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446
lyricists_name: Krystallis, Ilias
lyricists_name: Murtagh, Niamh
lyricists_id: IKRYS05
lyricists_id: NMMUR88
actors_name: Krystallis, Ilias
actors_id: IKRYS05
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: IEEE Engineering Management Review
citation:        Krystallis, I;    Locatelli, G;    Murtagh, N;      (2020)    Futureproofing Complex Infrastructure Projects Using Real Options.                   IEEE Engineering Management Review        10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446 <https://doi.org/10.1109/EMR.2020.3036446>.    (In press).    Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10114052/3/Krystallis_Futureproofing%20Complex%20Infrastructure%20Projects%20Using%20Real%20Options_AAM.pdf