eprintid: 10105899 rev_number: 16 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/10/58/99 datestamp: 2020-08-10 09:56:50 lastmod: 2021-10-16 22:46:37 status_changed: 2020-08-10 09:56:50 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Caroca Soto, P creators_name: Cartes, C creators_name: Davies, TP creators_name: Olivari, J creators_name: Rica, S creators_name: Vogt-Geisse, K title: The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F52 note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: We analyze the 2019 Chilean social unrest episode, consisting of a sequence of events, through the lens of an epidemic-like model that considers global contagious dynamics. We adjust the parameters to the Chilean social unrest aggregated public data available from the Undersecretary of Human Rights and observe that the number of violent events follows a well-defined pattern already observed in various public disorder episodes in other countries since the 1960s. Although the epidemic-like models display a single event that reaches a peak followed by an exponential decay, we add standard perturbation schemes that may produce a rich temporal behavior as observed in the 2019 Chilean social turmoil. Although we only have access to aggregated data, we are still able to fit it to our model quite well, providing interesting insights on social unrest dynamics. date: 2020-07-21 official_url: https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0006307 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1786610 doi: 10.1063/5.0006307 lyricists_name: Davies, Toby lyricists_id: TPDAV87 actors_name: Davies, Toby actors_id: TPDAV87 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Chaos volume: 30 number: 7 article_number: 073129 event_location: United States citation: Caroca Soto, P; Cartes, C; Davies, TP; Olivari, J; Rica, S; Vogt-Geisse, K; (2020) The anatomy of the 2019 Chilean social unrest. Chaos , 30 (7) , Article 073129. 10.1063/5.0006307 <https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0006307>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10105899/1/2003.00423v2.pdf