TY - JOUR AV - public EP - 350 JF - Education Economics N1 - This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher?s terms and conditions ID - discovery10096670 VL - 28 N2 - We study the UK's university application system, in which students apply based on predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. Using three years of UK university applications data we find that only 16% of applicants? predicted grades are accurate, with 75% of applicants having over-predicted grades. However, high-attaining, disadvantaged students are significantly more likely to receive pessimistic grade predictions. We show that under-predicted candidates are more likely to enrol in courses for which they are over qualified. We conclude that the use of predicted rather than actual grades has important implications for labour market outcomes and social mobility. KW - Higher education KW - university application KW - information KW - mismatch TI - Minority Report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups SP - 333 UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/09645292.2020.1761945 A1 - Murphy, R A1 - Wyness, G PB - Taylor & Francis Y1 - 2020/// IS - 4 ER -