eprintid: 10086408
rev_number: 47
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/08/64/08
datestamp: 2019-11-21 10:53:34
lastmod: 2021-09-28 22:33:46
status_changed: 2019-11-21 10:53:34
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Varah, A
creators_name: Ahodo, K
creators_name: Coutts, S
creators_name: Hicks, H
creators_name: Comont, D
creators_name: Crook, L
creators_name: Hull, R
creators_name: Neve, P
creators_name: Childs, D
creators_name: Freckleton, P
creators_name: Norris, K
title: The costs of human-induced evolution in an agricultural system
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B02
divisions: C08
divisions: D09
divisions: F99
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
abstract: Pesticides have underpinned significant improvements in global food security, albeit with associated environmental costs. Currently, the yield benefits of pesticides are threatened as overuse has led to wide-scale evolution of resistance. Despite this threat, there are no large-scale estimates of crop yield losses or economic costs due to resistance. Here, we combine national-scale density and resistance data for the weed Alopecurus myosuroides (black-grass) with crop yield maps and an economic model to estimate resistance impacts. We estimate that the annual cost of resistance in England is £0.4 billion in lost gross profit (2014 prices) and annual wheat yield loss due to resistance is 0.8 million tonnes. A total loss of herbicide control against black-grass would cost £1 billion and 3.4 million tonnes of lost wheat yield annually. Worldwide, there are 253 herbicide-resistant weeds, so the global impact of resistance could be enormous. Our research supports urgent national-scale planning to combat resistance and an incentive for increasing yields through food-production systems rather than herbicides.
date: 2020-01
date_type: published
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0450-8
oa_status: green
full_text_type: other
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1720800
doi: 10.1038/s41893-019-0450-8
lyricists_name: Norris, Kenneth
lyricists_name: Varah, Alexa
lyricists_id: KNORR90
lyricists_id: AVARA34
actors_name: Kalinowski, Damian
actors_id: DKALI47
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Nature Sustainability
volume: 3
pagerange: 63-71
citation:        Varah, A;    Ahodo, K;    Coutts, S;    Hicks, H;    Comont, D;    Crook, L;    Hull, R;                 ... Norris, K; + view all <#>        Varah, A;  Ahodo, K;  Coutts, S;  Hicks, H;  Comont, D;  Crook, L;  Hull, R;  Neve, P;  Childs, D;  Freckleton, P;  Norris, K;   - view fewer <#>    (2020)    The costs of human-induced evolution in an agricultural system.                   Nature Sustainability , 3    pp. 63-71.    10.1038/s41893-019-0450-8 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0450-8>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10086408/42/Varah_The%20costs%20of%20human-induced%20evolution%20in%20an%20agricultural%20system_AAM2.pdf
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10086408/48/Varah_The%20costs%20of%20human-induced%20evolution%20in%20an%20agricultural%20system_SuppM.pdf