eprintid: 10082135 rev_number: 17 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/08/21/35 datestamp: 2019-09-25 08:41:18 lastmod: 2021-09-25 23:12:42 status_changed: 2019-09-25 08:41:18 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Manoli, G creators_name: Fatichi, S creators_name: Schläpfer, M creators_name: Yu, K creators_name: Crowther, TW creators_name: Meili, N creators_name: Burlando, P creators_name: Katul, GG creators_name: Bou-Zeid, E title: Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F44 keywords: Cities, Climate Variability, Green Cover, Population, Urban Heat Islands note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban–rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions. date: 2019-09-05 date_type: published official_url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1692841 doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9 pii: 10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9 lyricists_name: Manoli, Gabriele lyricists_id: GMANO20 actors_name: Manoli, Gabriele actors_id: GMANO20 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Nature volume: 573 pagerange: 55-60 event_location: England issn: 1476-4687 citation: Manoli, G; Fatichi, S; Schläpfer, M; Yu, K; Crowther, TW; Meili, N; Burlando, P; ... Bou-Zeid, E; + view all <#> Manoli, G; Fatichi, S; Schläpfer, M; Yu, K; Crowther, TW; Meili, N; Burlando, P; Katul, GG; Bou-Zeid, E; - view fewer <#> (2019) Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population. Nature , 573 pp. 55-60. 10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10082135/1/Manoli_2019_UHI_global_NATURE_final_with%20figures.pdf