eprintid: 10082135
rev_number: 17
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/08/21/35
datestamp: 2019-09-25 08:41:18
lastmod: 2021-09-25 23:12:42
status_changed: 2019-09-25 08:41:18
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Manoli, G
creators_name: Fatichi, S
creators_name: Schläpfer, M
creators_name: Yu, K
creators_name: Crowther, TW
creators_name: Meili, N
creators_name: Burlando, P
creators_name: Katul, GG
creators_name: Bou-Zeid, E
title: Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C05
divisions: F44
keywords: Cities, Climate Variability, Green Cover, Population, Urban Heat Islands
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
abstract: Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban–rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions.
date: 2019-09-05
date_type: published
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9
oa_status: green
full_text_type: other
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1692841
doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9
pii: 10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9
lyricists_name: Manoli, Gabriele
lyricists_id: GMANO20
actors_name: Manoli, Gabriele
actors_id: GMANO20
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Nature
volume: 573
pagerange: 55-60
event_location: England
issn: 1476-4687
citation:        Manoli, G;    Fatichi, S;    Schläpfer, M;    Yu, K;    Crowther, TW;    Meili, N;    Burlando, P;         ... Bou-Zeid, E; + view all <#>        Manoli, G;  Fatichi, S;  Schläpfer, M;  Yu, K;  Crowther, TW;  Meili, N;  Burlando, P;  Katul, GG;  Bou-Zeid, E;   - view fewer <#>    (2019)    Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.                   Nature , 573    pp. 55-60.    10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9>.       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10082135/1/Manoli_2019_UHI_global_NATURE_final_with%20figures.pdf