eprintid: 10081786
rev_number: 18
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/08/17/86
datestamp: 2019-09-18 13:06:19
lastmod: 2021-10-06 22:13:12
status_changed: 2019-09-18 13:06:19
type: article
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Symonds, P
creators_name: Hutchinson, E
creators_name: Ibbetson, A
creators_name: Taylor, J
creators_name: Milner, J
creators_name: Chalabi, Z
creators_name: Davies, M
creators_name: Wilkinson, P
title: MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities
ispublished: inpress
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C04
divisions: F34
keywords: Microsimulation, Health modelling, Environmental risks,
Deprivation, Air pollution, SDGs
note: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognise the critical need to improve population health and environmental sustainability. This paper describes the development of a microsimulation model, MicroEnv, aimed
at quantifying the impact of environmental exposures on health as an aid to selecting policies likely to have
greatest benefit. Its methods allow the integration of morbidity and mortality outcomes and the generation of results at high spatial resolution. We illustrate its application to the assessment of the impact of air pollution on
health in London. Simulations are performed at Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA), the smallest geographic
unit (population of around 1500 inhabitants) for which detailed socio-demographic data are routinely available
in the UK. The health of each individual in these LSOAs is simulated year-by-year using a health-state-transition
model, where transition probabilities from one state to another are based on published statistics modified by relative risks that reflect the effect of environmental exposures. This is done through linkage of the simulated population in each LSOA with 1 × 1 km annual average PM2.5 concentrations and area-based deprivation indices. Air
pollution is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, and improving air quality is critical to the SDGs
for Health (Goal 3) and Cities (Goal 11). The evidence of MicroEnv is aimed at providing better understanding of
the benefits for population health and health inequalities of policy actions that affect exposure such as air quality,
and thus to help shape policy decisions. Future work will extend the model to integrate other environmental determinants of health.
date: 2019-12-20
date_type: published
official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105
oa_status: green
full_text_type: pub
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1693113
doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105
lyricists_name: Chalabi, Zaid
lyricists_name: Davies, Michael
lyricists_name: Symonds, Philip
lyricists_name: Taylor, Jonathon
lyricists_id: ZSCHA73
lyricists_id: MDAVI86
lyricists_id: PSYMO82
lyricists_id: JGTAY63
actors_name: Taylor, Jonathon
actors_id: JGTAY63
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Science of the Total Environment
volume: 697
article_number: 134105
issn: 1879-1026
citation:        Symonds, P;    Hutchinson, E;    Ibbetson, A;    Taylor, J;    Milner, J;    Chalabi, Z;    Davies, M;           Symonds, P;  Hutchinson, E;  Ibbetson, A;  Taylor, J;  Milner, J;  Chalabi, Z;  Davies, M;  Wilkinson, P;   - view fewer <#>    (2019)    MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities.                   Science of the Total Environment , 697     , Article 134105.  10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105>.    (In press).    Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10081786/1/MicroEnv.pdf