eprintid: 10081786 rev_number: 18 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/08/17/86 datestamp: 2019-09-18 13:06:19 lastmod: 2021-10-06 22:13:12 status_changed: 2019-09-18 13:06:19 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Symonds, P creators_name: Hutchinson, E creators_name: Ibbetson, A creators_name: Taylor, J creators_name: Milner, J creators_name: Chalabi, Z creators_name: Davies, M creators_name: Wilkinson, P title: MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities ispublished: inpress divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C04 divisions: F34 keywords: Microsimulation, Health modelling, Environmental risks, Deprivation, Air pollution, SDGs note: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognise the critical need to improve population health and environmental sustainability. This paper describes the development of a microsimulation model, MicroEnv, aimed at quantifying the impact of environmental exposures on health as an aid to selecting policies likely to have greatest benefit. Its methods allow the integration of morbidity and mortality outcomes and the generation of results at high spatial resolution. We illustrate its application to the assessment of the impact of air pollution on health in London. Simulations are performed at Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA), the smallest geographic unit (population of around 1500 inhabitants) for which detailed socio-demographic data are routinely available in the UK. The health of each individual in these LSOAs is simulated year-by-year using a health-state-transition model, where transition probabilities from one state to another are based on published statistics modified by relative risks that reflect the effect of environmental exposures. This is done through linkage of the simulated population in each LSOA with 1 × 1 km annual average PM2.5 concentrations and area-based deprivation indices. Air pollution is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, and improving air quality is critical to the SDGs for Health (Goal 3) and Cities (Goal 11). The evidence of MicroEnv is aimed at providing better understanding of the benefits for population health and health inequalities of policy actions that affect exposure such as air quality, and thus to help shape policy decisions. Future work will extend the model to integrate other environmental determinants of health. date: 2019-12-20 date_type: published official_url: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105 oa_status: green full_text_type: pub language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1693113 doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105 lyricists_name: Chalabi, Zaid lyricists_name: Davies, Michael lyricists_name: Symonds, Philip lyricists_name: Taylor, Jonathon lyricists_id: ZSCHA73 lyricists_id: MDAVI86 lyricists_id: PSYMO82 lyricists_id: JGTAY63 actors_name: Taylor, Jonathon actors_id: JGTAY63 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Science of the Total Environment volume: 697 article_number: 134105 issn: 1879-1026 citation: Symonds, P; Hutchinson, E; Ibbetson, A; Taylor, J; Milner, J; Chalabi, Z; Davies, M; Symonds, P; Hutchinson, E; Ibbetson, A; Taylor, J; Milner, J; Chalabi, Z; Davies, M; Wilkinson, P; - view fewer <#> (2019) MicroEnv: A microsimulation model for quantifying the impacts of environmental policies on population health and health inequalities. Science of the Total Environment , 697 , Article 134105. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134105>. (In press). Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10081786/1/MicroEnv.pdf