TY  - JOUR
VL  - 19
N2  - Current country-level commitments under the Paris Agreement fall short of putting the world on a required trajectory to stay below a 2°C temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Therefore, the timing of increased ambition is hugely important and as such this paper analyses the impact of both the short and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement on global emissions and economic growth. Using the hybrid TIAM-UCL-MSA model we consider the achievement of a 2°C target against a baseline of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) while also considering the timing of increased ambition of the NDCs by 2030 and the impacts of cost reductions of key low-carbon technologies. We find that the rate of emissions reduction ambition required between 2030 and 2050 is almost double when the NDCs are achieved but not ratcheted up until 2030, and leads to lower levels of economic growth throughout the rest of the century. However, if action is taken immediately and is accompanied by increasingly rapid low-carbon technology cost reductions, then there is almost no difference in GDP compared to the path suggested by the current NDC commitments.
EP  - 958
JF  - Climate Policy
AV  - public
ID  - discovery10075360
N1  - This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher?s terms and conditions.
TI  - Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and the costs of delayed action
KW  - Paris Agreement
KW  -  delayed action
KW  -  economic impact
KW  -  Nationally Determined Contributions
KW  -  greenhouse gas emissions
KW  -  energy system modelling
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1615858
SP  - 947
Y1  - 2019///
PB  - Earthscan
A1  - Winning, M
A1  - Price, J
A1  - Ekins, P
A1  - Pye, S
A1  - Glynn, J
A1  - Watson, J
A1  - McGlade, C
IS  - 8
ER  -