eprintid: 10072209 rev_number: 22 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/07/22/09 datestamp: 2019-04-15 11:37:40 lastmod: 2021-09-29 22:18:51 status_changed: 2019-09-17 09:54:03 type: article metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Lindner, A creators_name: Zipperer, B creators_name: Dube, A creators_name: Doruk, C title: The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low Wage Jobs ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B03 divisions: C03 divisions: F24 note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: We estimate the eect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs using 138 prominent state-level minimum wage changes between 1979 and 2016 in the U.S using a dierence-in-dierences approach. We first estimate the eect of the minimum wage increase on employment changes by wage bins throughout the hourly wage distribution. We then focus on the bottom part of the wage distribution and compare the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it to infer the employment eect. We find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged over the five years following the increase. At the same time, the direct eect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors. We also show how decomposing the overall employment eect by wage bins allows a transparent way of assessing the plausibility of estimates. date: 2019-08 date_type: published publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP) official_url: https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz014 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1646032 doi: 10.1093/qje/qjz014 lyricists_name: Lindner, Attila lyricists_id: ALIND76 actors_name: Lindner, Attila actors_id: ALIND76 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: The Quarterly Journal of Economics volume: 134 number: 3 pagerange: 1405-1454 issn: 0033-5533 citation: Lindner, A; Zipperer, B; Dube, A; Doruk, C; (2019) The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low Wage Jobs. The Quarterly Journal of Economics , 134 (3) pp. 1405-1454. 10.1093/qje/qjz014 <https://doi.org/10.1093/qje%2Fqjz014>. Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10072209/1/CDLZ_qje.pdf