@article{discovery10064686, volume = {20}, month = {January}, note = {Copyright {\copyright} The Author(s) 2019.This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.}, publisher = {BioMed Central}, year = {2019}, title = {Identification of young adults at risk of accelerated kidney function loss in an area affected by Mesoamerican nephropathy}, journal = {BMC Nephrology}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12882-018-1193-x}, author = {Gonzalez-Quiroz, M and Smpokou, E-T and Pearce, N and Caplin, B and Nitsch, D}, issn = {1471-2369}, abstract = {Background: After two-years of follow-up of 263 apparently healthy 18- to 30-year-old men in communities affected by Mesoamerican nephropathy (MeN), we identified three distinct case groups: a subgroup with (i) established renal dysfunction (case-group 1); individuals with (ii) a rapid decline in kidney function (case-group 2); and individuals with (iii) stable kidney function (non-cases). This paper investigates whether local tests are potentially useful for the timely identification of these case groups. / Methods: Creatinine levels were measured in local laboratories every six months for two years. Aliquots were sent to a centralized laboratory for measurements of cystatin C and creatinine levels. We investigated agreement between the locally and centrally measured creatinine-based Chronic Kidney disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation for estimating the Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR). A logistic regression analysis was used to assess predictive factors for case groups 1 and 2 compared to non-cases. Predictive variables were locally measured eGFR, and urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (uNGAL) levels. The discrimination performance of the model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). / Results: Considerable variation in local eGFR measurements was observed. The prediction model for case-group 1 included baseline kidney function and with or without uNGAL (AUC = 0.98, 95\% confidence interval (CI), 0.91-1.00). The prediction model for case-group 2 also required eGFRScr at six and twelve months after baseline, with or without uNGAL levels (AUC = 0.88; 95\% CI 0.80-0.99). / Conclusions: Established renal dysfunction was detected at a single time point using local measurements and uNGAL. For the detection of a rapid decline in kidney function over time, at least 2 more measurements at six and twelve months are needed.}, keywords = {Mesoamerican nephropathy, Chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology, Prediction, Kidney function status, Serum creatinine, uNGAL, ROC, Nicaragua} }