eprintid: 10064498 rev_number: 25 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/06/44/98 datestamp: 2018-12-19 11:13:03 lastmod: 2021-09-30 22:39:34 status_changed: 2018-12-19 11:13:03 type: proceedings_section metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Cheng, Y creators_name: Ye, X creators_name: Zhou, L title: Forecasting the Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin–Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit System: Case Study of Chongqing, China ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F44 keywords: Urban rail transit, Station-to-station ridership, Gravity model, Peak period coefficient, Deterrence function note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: The maximum one-direction section passenger flow within peak hour is an important indicator for planning and design of urban rail transit. To determine it, it is necessary to forecast passengers’ departure time and route choice during peak period. As the basis of this process, the peak-period station-to-station origin-destination (OD) matrix reflects the passengers’ travel needs. This paper tests traditional gravity models in forecasting the peak-period station-to-station origin and destination (OD) matrix in urban rail transit with a real-world case study of Chongqing, China. To solve its over-estimation when deterrence between two stations is too little, the gravity-model-based Peak Period Coefficient (PPC) model is introduced. Comparing results show that with the same dataset, the PPC model is superior to the gravity model. Its standard deviation is only 12.90 passengers, reduced by 56.02%. date: 2018-01-08 date_type: published publisher: National Academy of Sciences official_url: https://trid.trb.org/view/1495294 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1614086 language_elements: English lyricists_name: Cheng, Yan lyricists_id: CYANX81 actors_name: Cheng, Yan actors_id: CYANX81 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting event_title: Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting event_location: Washington (DC), United States event_dates: 7th-11th January 2018 institution: Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting book_title: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting citation: Cheng, Y; Ye, X; Zhou, L; (2018) Forecasting the Peak-Period Station-to-Station Origin–Destination Matrix in Urban Rail Transit System: Case Study of Chongqing, China. In: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 97th Annual Meeting. National Academy of Sciences Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10064498/1/Cheng_Forecasting%20the%20Peak-Period%20Station-to-Station%20Origin%E2%80%93Destination%20Matrix%20in%20Urban%20Rail%20Transit%20System.%20Case%20Study%20of%20Chongqing%2C%20China_AAM.pdf