eprintid: 10064493
rev_number: 24
eprint_status: archive
userid: 608
dir: disk0/10/06/44/93
datestamp: 2018-12-19 12:05:09
lastmod: 2021-09-30 22:39:28
status_changed: 2018-12-19 12:05:09
type: proceedings_section
metadata_visibility: show
creators_name: Cheng, Y
creators_name: Ye, X
creators_name: Wang, Z
title: A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture
ispublished: pub
divisions: UCL
divisions: B04
divisions: C05
divisions: F44
keywords: Urban Mass Transit, Peak Period, Proportion of Boardings, Two Types of Risks, Regression Model
note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
abstract: At the planning and design phase of urban mass transit system, the aim is to grasp the features of spatial and temporal distributions of passenger flow during peak period. For this goal, dynamic passenger assignment model should be applied. An indispensable input parameter of this model is time-varying interstation OD matrix of peak period. To gaining this parameter, the first step is figuring out peak period boardings (excluding interchanges, PPB). Since all-day boardings can be extracted from the given all-day OD matrix, the study focuses on forecasting the proportion of PPB. Taking Osaka Prefecture as research area, this article firstly proposes a new concept of station catchment area as the border of data collection, which can be determined by two types of risks. With the help of Spearman correlation analysis, 3 factors prove to be significantly associated with the proportion of PPB. Then two regression models are conducted with socio-economic and land-use characteristics as independent variables respectively. Results show that the model with the proportion of resident population as independent variable has a better performance, of which the adjusted R² 17 reaches 0.951 and the standard error of verification data is only 7.8 percent.
date: 2016-01-12
date_type: published
publisher: National Academy of Sciences
official_url: https://trid.trb.org/view/1393392
oa_status: green
full_text_type: other
language: eng
primo: open
primo_central: open_green
verified: verified_manual
elements_id: 1614039
language_elements: English
lyricists_name: Cheng, Yan
lyricists_id: CYANX81
actors_name: Cheng, Yan
actors_id: CYANX81
actors_role: owner
full_text_status: public
publication: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
event_title: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
event_location: Washington (DC), United States
event_dates: 10th-14th January 2016
institution: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
book_title: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting
citation:        Cheng, Y;    Ye, X;    Wang, Z;      (2016)    A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture.                     In:  Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting.    National Academy of Sciences       Green open access   
 
document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10064493/1/Cheng_A%20Forecasting%20Model%20of%20the%20Proportion%20of%20Peak%20Period%20Boardings%20for%20Urban%20Mass%20Transit%20System.%20A%20Case%20Study%20of%20Osaka%20Prefecture_AAM.pdf