eprintid: 10064493 rev_number: 24 eprint_status: archive userid: 608 dir: disk0/10/06/44/93 datestamp: 2018-12-19 12:05:09 lastmod: 2021-09-30 22:39:28 status_changed: 2018-12-19 12:05:09 type: proceedings_section metadata_visibility: show creators_name: Cheng, Y creators_name: Ye, X creators_name: Wang, Z title: A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture ispublished: pub divisions: UCL divisions: B04 divisions: C05 divisions: F44 keywords: Urban Mass Transit, Peak Period, Proportion of Boardings, Two Types of Risks, Regression Model note: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. abstract: At the planning and design phase of urban mass transit system, the aim is to grasp the features of spatial and temporal distributions of passenger flow during peak period. For this goal, dynamic passenger assignment model should be applied. An indispensable input parameter of this model is time-varying interstation OD matrix of peak period. To gaining this parameter, the first step is figuring out peak period boardings (excluding interchanges, PPB). Since all-day boardings can be extracted from the given all-day OD matrix, the study focuses on forecasting the proportion of PPB. Taking Osaka Prefecture as research area, this article firstly proposes a new concept of station catchment area as the border of data collection, which can be determined by two types of risks. With the help of Spearman correlation analysis, 3 factors prove to be significantly associated with the proportion of PPB. Then two regression models are conducted with socio-economic and land-use characteristics as independent variables respectively. Results show that the model with the proportion of resident population as independent variable has a better performance, of which the adjusted R² 17 reaches 0.951 and the standard error of verification data is only 7.8 percent. date: 2016-01-12 date_type: published publisher: National Academy of Sciences official_url: https://trid.trb.org/view/1393392 oa_status: green full_text_type: other language: eng primo: open primo_central: open_green verified: verified_manual elements_id: 1614039 language_elements: English lyricists_name: Cheng, Yan lyricists_id: CYANX81 actors_name: Cheng, Yan actors_id: CYANX81 actors_role: owner full_text_status: public publication: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting event_title: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting event_location: Washington (DC), United States event_dates: 10th-14th January 2016 institution: Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting book_title: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting citation: Cheng, Y; Ye, X; Wang, Z; (2016) A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture. In: Proceedings of the Transportation Research Board 95th Annual Meeting. National Academy of Sciences Green open access document_url: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10064493/1/Cheng_A%20Forecasting%20Model%20of%20the%20Proportion%20of%20Peak%20Period%20Boardings%20for%20Urban%20Mass%20Transit%20System.%20A%20Case%20Study%20of%20Osaka%20Prefecture_AAM.pdf