TY  - GEN
KW  - Urban Mass Transit
KW  -  Peak Period
KW  -  Proportion of Boardings
KW  -  Two Types of Risks
KW  -  Regression Model
A1  - Cheng, Y
A1  - Ye, X
A1  - Wang, Z
ID  - discovery10064493
N2  - At the planning and design phase of urban mass transit system, the aim is to grasp the features of spatial and temporal distributions of passenger flow during peak period. For this goal, dynamic passenger assignment model should be applied. An indispensable input parameter of this model is time-varying interstation OD matrix of peak period. To gaining this parameter, the first step is figuring out peak period boardings (excluding interchanges, PPB). Since all-day boardings can be extracted from the given all-day OD matrix, the study focuses on forecasting the proportion of PPB. Taking Osaka Prefecture as research area, this article firstly proposes a new concept of station catchment area as the border of data collection, which can be determined by two types of risks. With the help of Spearman correlation analysis, 3 factors prove to be significantly associated with the proportion of PPB. Then two regression models are conducted with socio-economic and land-use characteristics as independent variables respectively. Results show that the model with the proportion of resident population as independent variable has a better performance, of which the adjusted R² 17 reaches 0.951 and the standard error of verification data is only 7.8 percent.
PB  - National Academy of Sciences
UR  - https://trid.trb.org/view/1393392
N1  - This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher?s terms and conditions.
TI  - A Forecasting Model of the Proportion of Peak-Period Boardings for Urban Mass Transit System: A Case Study of Osaka Prefecture
AV  - public
Y1  - 2016/01/12/
ER  -