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Cities as complex systems: Modelling climate change dynamics

Wilson, A; (2010) Cities as complex systems: Modelling climate change dynamics. In: UNSPECIFIED (pp. 23-30).

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It is argued that our knowledge of urban and regional models as effective representations of cities and regions is advancing rapidly in the context of complexity science and that this knowledge can now be applied to problems of climate change. An hierarchical comprehensive model framework is described, governed by demographic and input-output modelling at the higher levels of aggregation and in terms of interaction and spatial structure models at urban and regional scales. The importance of the key concepts of dynamic modelling-particularly path dependence and phase transitions-is emphasized. The idea of urban and regional 'DNA' is introduced. It is shown that it is straight forward in principle to estimate energy consumption and carbon emissions within the comprehensive framework and to use the models at the various scales to aid policy development by testing various scenarios associated with climate change. The associated research challenges are outlined.

Type: Book chapter
Title: Cities as complex systems: Modelling climate change dynamics
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/84494
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