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Confidence judgments by actors and observers

Koehler, DJ; Harvey, N; (1997) Confidence judgments by actors and observers. JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING , 10 (3) 221 - 242.

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Abstract

We report three experiments comparing confidence judgments made by actors and by observers. In Experiment 1, actors generated qualitative answers (countries of the world) in a country-identification task; in Experiment 2, actors generated quantitative answers (years) in a historical event-dating task. Both actors and observers indicated their confidence in the actors' answers. Actors were significantly less confident in their answers than were observers in the first experiment. This effect was substantially reduced in the second experiment, whether confidence was measured by judged probability or by credible interval width. Experiment 3 used a control task in which actors attempted to bring an outcome variable into a desired range. In contrast to the first two experiments, actors in the control task were more confident than observers. Because subjects were generally overconfident in all three experiments, the present results demonstrate that the use of observers can reduce or exacerbate overconfidence depending on the kind of task and the nature of the event or possibility under evaluation. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Type: Article
Title: Confidence judgments by actors and observers
Location: JERUSALEM, ISRAEL
Keywords: confidence, subjective probability, hypothesis generation, calibration, PLAUSIBILITY ASSESSMENTS, HYPOTHESIS GENERATION, REPRESENTATION, ACCOUNTABILITY, PROBABILITY
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/67273
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