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The end of equilibrium

Goodwin, PB; (1998) The end of equilibrium. In: Garling, T and Laitila, T and Westin, K, (eds.) Theoretical foundations of travel choice: modelling. Elsevier Science: Amsterdam, NL.

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The concept of equilibrium has exerted a commanding authority over the development of economic theory in general, and travel behaviour modelling in particular. It now acts as a barrier to deeper understanding of the effects of transport policy initiatives, and should be replaced by survey methods and analytical techniques which focus on dynamic processes of adaptation and adjustment, not on equilibrium end-states. Equilibrium models which have been constructed on the basis of cross-section data are inherently biassed even in their description of the end-state, because their coefficients are estimated, in nearly all practical cases, using observations of uncompleted processes which have not yet settled down. This results in erroneous calculation of demand elasticities and of quantities essential to project appraisal, such as net present values

Type:Book chapter
Title:The end of equilibrium
Keywords:Adaptation, appraisal, Deeper, demand, demand elasticity, development, disequilibrium, Dynamic, dynamics, Equilibrium, long-term effects, Model, MODELS, process, processes, PROJECT, Survey, theory, transport, transport equilibrium, transport policy
UCL classification:UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering

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