De Giorgi, G; (2005) Long term effects of a mandatory multistage program:the new deal for young people in the UK. UCL (University College London), The Institute for Fiscal Studies

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Abstract

The New Deal For Young People is the major welfare-to-work program in the UK. It is amandatory multistage policy targeted at the 18-24 year old unemployed. This paper investi-gates the effectiveness of the program in terms of enhancing the (re)employment probabilityof participant males. I exploit the eligibility rule to identify a suitable counterfactual relyingupon a simple regression discontinuity design. By exploiting such a discontinuity I am ableto non parametrically identify (Hahn et al., 2001) a local average treatment effect (LATE).While relying upon the non parametric local linear regression method I am able to pushforward such a parameter to a \global" dimension, implicitly adding parametric structure.No evidence of possible general equilibrium as well as substitution effects is found by a cohort specific approach (before and after the program). The main result is that the programenhances employability by about 6-7%.

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