Desyllas, J; Duxbury, E; Ward, J; Smith, A; (2003) Pedestrian demand modelling of large cities: an applied example from London. (CASA Working Papers 62). Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (UCL): London, UK.

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Abstract

This paper introduces a methodology for the development of city wide pedestrian demand models and shows its application to London. The approach used for modelling is Multiple Regression Analysis of independent variables against the dependent variable of observed pedestrian flows. The test samples were from manual observation studies of average total pedestrian flow per hour on 237 sample sites. The model will provide predicted flow values for all 7,526 street segments in the 25 square kilometres of Central London. It has been independently validated by Transport for London and is being tested against further observation data. The longer term aim is to extend the model to the entire greater London area and to incorporate additional policy levers for use as a transport planning and evaluation tool.

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