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Controlling uncertainty: a review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments

Osman, M.; (2009) Controlling uncertainty: a review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments. (ELSE Working Papers 342). ESRC Centre for Economic Learning and Social Evolution: London, UK. Green open access

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Abstract

Complex dynamic control tasks (CDC tasks) are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research (Economics, Engineering, Ergonomics, Human Computer Interaction (HCI), Management, Psychology), which remain largely disconnected from each other. The objective of this article is to review theoretical developments and empirical work on CDC tasks, and to introduce a novel framework (Monitoring and Control framework) as a tool for integrating theory and findings. The main thesis of the Monitoring and Control framework is that CDC tasks are characteristically uncertain environments, and subjective judgments of uncertainty guide the way in which monitoring and control behaviors attempt to reduce it. The article concludes by discussing new insights into continuing debates and future directions for research on CDC tasks.

Type: Working / discussion paper
Title: Controlling uncertainty: a review of human behavior in complex dynamic environments
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://else.econ.ucl.ac.uk/newweb/papers.php#2009
Language: English
Keywords: Monitoring, control, uncertainty, dynamic, complex tasks, causality, agency
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/18254
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