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Problems of forecasting migration as a consequence of EU Eastern enlargement. Comment on the papers presented by Herbert Brücker and Gebhard Flaig

Dustmann, C.; (2001) Problems of forecasting migration as a consequence of EU Eastern enlargement. Comment on the papers presented by Herbert Brücker and Gebhard Flaig. Applied Economics Quarterly Supplement , 52 (1) pp. 77-83.

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Abstract

The two contributions deal with an issue which has found considerable interest in the recent political debate: The size of the inflow of immigrants to Germany after an enlargement of the European Union. My main criticism relates to three problems: The ad hoc choice of the underlying modelling structure, the unsuitability of the underlying data sources, and the implicit assumptions that all migrations are permanent. I argue that as a result of these deficiencies, the predictions of these models are not credible.

Type: Article
Title: Problems of forecasting migration as a consequence of EU Eastern enlargement. Comment on the papers presented by Herbert Brücker and Gebhard Flaig
Publisher version: http://aeq.diw.de/aeq/index.jsp?n=0010&p=3&c=summa...
Language: English
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of SandHS > Dept of Economics
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/16476
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