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Manage speculation risks in the dry bulk industry

Cocconcelli, L; (2017) Manage speculation risks in the dry bulk industry. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London). Green open access

Cocconcelli_Luca Cocconcelli PhD Thesis.pdf

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The peak to through phase in the dry bulk shipping market between 2005 and 2010 is the rational background of this thesis. The concomitant speculative events unfolding on commodity markets raise the question of whether or not dry bulk shipping market is exposed to speculation, if these speculative behaviours can be transmitted to the dry bulk industry from other connected markets (i.e. commodities) and if this speculation influences investment decisions of ship-owners and the sustainable growth of port cities. Against this backdrop, this thesis represents a novelty and fosters the debate regarding the negative effects of speculation in the dry bulk industry. Additionally, it provides a comprehensive analysis of the key drivers of boom and bust cycles in the dry bulk industry and provides a conceptual framework to manage speculative risks. Given these objectives, first, this research demonstrates that the super cycle between 2005 and 2010 witnessed in the dry bulk industry was driven by speculative behaviours. Secondly, it proves that the dry bulk speculative cycle was related to recent speculative trends in commodities. Thirdly, the research shows how freight rates, commodity prices and port infrastructure influence each other and how speculation spreads to other important ship-owners' investment areas. Fourthly, it demonstrates that maritime speculation can be transmitted from port activities to the regional real estate market. The findings emphasise that speculation modifies the investment decisions in the dry bulk shipping market. Additionally, the final results prove that dry bulk is affected by periods of boom and bust cycles leaving the entire industry prone to instability and excessive investment exuberance. Ultimately, the thesis contributes in the understanding of boom and bust periods to effectively manage speculative risks in the dry bulk industry.

Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Title: Manage speculation risks in the dry bulk industry
Event: UCL (University College London)
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Language: English
UCL classification: UCL > School of BEAMS
UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1559983
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