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The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

Tuckett, DA; Nikolic, M; (2017) The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty. Theory and Psychology , 27 (4) pp. 501-523. 10.1177/0959354317713158. Green open access

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Abstract

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory for it better to understand and analyse how subjectively means-end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesizing that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot.

Type: Article
Title: The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/0959354317713158
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0959354317713158
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (http://www.uk.sagepub.com/aboutus/openaccess.htm).
Keywords: action, conviction, decision-making under uncertainty, emotion, narrative
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Clinical, Edu and Hlth Psychology
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1546209
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