Pecl, GT; Araujo, MB; Bell, JD; Blanchard, J; Bonebrake, TC; Chen, I-C; Clark, TD; ... Williams, SE; + view all Pecl, GT; Araujo, MB; Bell, JD; Blanchard, J; Bonebrake, TC; Chen, I-C; Clark, TD; Colwell, RK; Danielsen, F; Evengard, B; Falconi, L; Ferrier, S; Frusher, S; Garcia, RA; Griffis, RB; Hobday, AJ; Janion-Scheepers, C; Jarzyna, MA; Jennings, S; Lenoir, J; Linnetved, HI; Martin, VY; McCormack, PC; McDonald, J; Mitchell, NJ; Mustonen, T; Pandolfi, JM; Pettorelli, N; Popova, E; Robinson, SA; Scheffers, BR; Shaw, JD; Sorte, CJB; Strugnell, JM; Sunday, JM; Tuanmu, M-N; Verges, A; Villanueva, C; Wenberg, T; Wapstra, E; Williams, SE; - view fewer (2017) Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: impacts on ecosystems and human well-being. Science , Article eaai9214. 10.1126/science.aai9214.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: The success of human societies depends intimately on the living components of natural and managed systems. Although the geographical range limits of species are dynamic and fluctuate over time, climate change is impelling a universal redistribution of life on Earth. For marine, freshwater, and terrestrial species alike, the first response to changing climate is often a shift in location, to stay within preferred environmental conditions. At the cooler extremes of their distributions, species are moving polewards, while range limits are contracting at the warmer range edge, where temperatures are no longer tolerable. On land, species are also moving to cooler, higher elevations, and, in the ocean, to colder water at greater depths. Because different species respond at different rates and to different degrees, key interactions among species are often disrupted, and new interactions develop. These idiosyncrasies can result in novel biotic communities and rapid changes in ecosystem functioning, with pervasive and sometimes unexpected consequences that propagate through and impact both biological and human communities. ADVANCES: At a time when the world is anticipating unprecedented increases in human population growth and demands, the ability of natural ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services is being challenged by the largest climate-driven global redistribution of species since the last glacial maximum. We demonstrate the serious consequences of this species redistribution for economic development, livelihoods, food security, human health, and culture, and we document feedbacks on climate itself. As with other impacts of climate change, species range shifts will leave “winners” and “losers” in their wake, radically re-shaping the pattern of human well-being between regions and different sectors and potentially leading to substantial conflict. The pervasive impacts of changes in species distribution transcend single systems or dimensions, with feedbacks and linkages between multiple interacting scales and through whole ecosystems, inclusive of humans. We argue that the negative effects of climate change cannot be adequately anticipated or prepared for unless species responses are explicitly included in decision-making and global strategic frameworks. OUTLOOK: Despite mounting evidence for the pervasive and significant impacts of a climatedriven redistribution of Earth’s species, current global goals, policies, and international agreements fail to take account of these impacts. With the predicted intensification of species movements and their diverse societal and environmental impacts, awareness of ‘species on the move’ should be incorporated into local, regional and global assessments as standard practice. This will raise hope that future targets can be achievable, whether they be global sustainability goals, plans for regional biodiversity maintenance, or local fishing or forestry harvest strategies. and that society is prepared for a world of universal ecological change. Human society has yet to appreciate the implications of unprecedented species redistribution for life on earth, including for human lives. Even if greenhouse gas emissions stopped today, the responses required in human systems to adapt to the most serious of impacts of climate-driven species redistribution would be massive. Meeting these challenges requires governance that can anticipate and adapt to changing conditions, and minimize negative consequences.

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