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How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

Fenton, N; Neil, M; Lagnado, D; Marsh, W; Yet, B; Constantinou, A; (2016) How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models. Knowledge-Based Systems , 113 pp. 39-50. 10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012. Green open access

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Abstract

We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed ‘solution’, which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We provide a novel and simple solution to this problem that works in all cases where the mutually exclusive nodes have no common ancestors. Our solution uses a special type of constraint and auxiliary node together with formulas for assigning their necessary conditional probability table values. The solution enforces mutual exclusivity between events and preserves their prior probabilities while leaving all original BN nodes unchanged.

Type: Article
Title: How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article made available under a Creative Commons license ((CC BY 4.0) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Keywords: Bayesian networks; Mutually exclusive events; Causes; Uncertain reasoning
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1537560
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