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The development and validation of a 10-year mortality risk index in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults

Kobayashi, LC; Jackson, SE; Lee, S; Wardle, J; Steptoe, A; (2017) The development and validation of a 10-year mortality risk index in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults. Age and Ageing , 46 (3) pp. 427-432. 10.1093/ageing/afw199. Green open access

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop and validate a population-representative 10-year mortality risk index for older adults in England. METHODS: Data were from 10,798 men and women aged 50 years and older in the population-based English Longitudinal Study of Ageing in 2002/03, randomly split into development (n = 5,377) and validation cohorts (n = 5,421). Participants were asked about their sociodemographics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and functional status in the home-based interviews. Variables that were independently associated with all-cause mortality through March 2013 in the development cohort were weighted relative to one another to develop risk point scores for the index that was calibrated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: The validated 10-year mortality risk index assigns points for: increasing age (50–59 years: 0 points; 60–64: 1 point; 65–69: 3 points; 70–74: 5 points; 75–79: 7 points; 80–84: 9 points; ≥85: 12 points), male (2 points), no vigorous physical activity (1 point), smoking (2 points), having a diagnosis of cancer (1 point), chronic lung disease (2 points) or heart failure (4 points), and having difficulty preparing a hot meal (2 points), pushing or pulling large objects (1 point) or walking 100 yards (1 point). In the full study cohort, 10-year mortality rates increased from 1.7% (11/664) in those with 0 points to 95% (189/199) among those with ≥16 points. CONCLUSION: This highly predictive 10-item mortality risk index is valid in the English population aged 50 years and older. It uses simple information that is often available in research studies and patient reports, and does not require biomarker data to predict mortality.

Type: Article
Title: The development and validation of a 10-year mortality risk index in a longitudinal cohort of older English adults
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afw199
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afw199
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Keywords: older people; mortality risk; risk factors; mortality risk calculator; 10-year mortality risk
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Behavioural Science and Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > Institute of Epidemiology and Health > Epidemiology and Public Health
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1527499
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