Turrent, VL; (2016) Does aid educate? Dynamic panel evidence on the role of official development assistance in determining outcomes in primary education. Doctoral thesis , UCL (University College London).

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Abstract

This research evaluates the effectiveness of Official Development Assistance in determining primary education enrolment and completion, as well as the differential role that the quality of recipient country governance and presence of conflict play in influencing its impact. A panel dataset is constructed to allow analysis of educational and aid data for 61 countries over the period 1970-2013 using the dynamic panel system Generalised Methods of Moments estimator. The macro analysis is complemented by analysis of the disaggregated panel data and a review of education aid evaluations for select countries in order to profile the patterns of educational aid and enrolment growth. The results find education aid to be a highly significant predictor of enrolment, with a US$ 1 increase in education aid equated with a 0.3 rise in the primary net enrolment rate. Aid committed to countries with more stable governance is shown to be significant in the production of higher levels of primary enrolment as is education aid given during times of conflict. Both the results of the macro analysis and the four case studies - Pakistan, India, Malawi and Mozambique - point to aid effectiveness being highly dependent upon the context to which it is delivered. By analysing how differing ‘structural vulnerabilities’ have influenced the impact of aid for education, the thesis encourages the global debate to move on from asking whether or not aid works to looking at when aid works and how it can work better, arguing that increased emphasis will need to be placed on the strategic allocation of aid if the new ambitious sustainable education goal is to be met. The implications of the research for the practice of donor aid-giving post-2015 are important, as the results question current aid allocation practices and the proposed benefits of earlier calls to adopt a ‘big push’ approach to scaling-up education aid. It is argued that aid should be allocated on the basis of educational need and the focus ought primarily to be on ensuring the effectiveness of education aid projects where governance and/or political will is weak by identifying innovative and context-appropriate aid delivery mechanisms.

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