UCL logo

UCL Discovery

UCL home » Library Services » Electronic resources » UCL Discovery

Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-based Perspective

Brierley, L; Vonhof, M; Olival, KJ; Daszak, P; Jones, KE; (2016) Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-based Perspective. The American Naturalist 10.1086/684391. Green open access

[img]
Preview
Text
Jones_684391.pdf

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), particularly zoonoses, represent a significant threat to global health. Emergence is often driven by anthropogenic activity (e.g. travel, land use change). Although disease emergence frameworks suggest multiple steps from initial zoonotic transmission to human-to-human spread, there have been few attempts to empirically model specific steps. We create a process-based framework to separate out components of individual emergence steps. We focus on early emergence and expand the first step, zoonotic transmission, into processes of generation of pathogen richness, transmission opportunity and establishment, each with their own hypothesised drivers. Using this structure, we build a spatial empirical model of these drivers, taking bat viruses shared with humans as a case study. We show that drivers of both viral richness (host diversity and climatic variability) and transmission opportunity (human population density, bushmeat hunting and livestock production) are associated with virus sharing between humans and bats. We also show spatial heterogeneity between the global patterns of these two processes, suggesting high priority locations for pathogen discovery and surveillance in wildlife may not necessarily coincide with those for public health intervention. Finally, we offer direction for future studies of zoonotic EIDs by highlighting the importance of the processes underlying their emergence.

Type: Article
Title: Quantifying Global Drivers of Zoonotic Bat Viruses: A Process-based Perspective
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1086/684391
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/684391
Language: English
Additional information: © 2015 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.
Keywords: emerging infectious diseases, zoonoses, hotspots, land use, viral richness, bats
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Div of Biosciences > Genetics, Evolution and Environment
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1470243
Downloads since deposit
190Downloads
Download activity - last month
Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads by country - last 12 months

Archive Staff Only

View Item View Item