Creemers, S;
De Reyck, B;
Leos, R;
(2015)
Project planning with alternative technologies in uncertain environments.
European Journal of Operational Research
, 242
(2)
465 - 476.
10.1016/j.ejor.2014.11.014.
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Abstract
We investigate project scheduling with stochastic activity durations to maximize the expected net present value. Individual activities also carry a risk of failure, which can cause the overall project to fail. In the project planning literature, such technological uncertainty is typically ignored and project plans are developed only for scenarios in which the project succeeds. To mitigate the risk that an activity’s failure jeopardizes the entire project, more than one alternative may exist for reaching the project’s objectives. We propose a model that incorporates both the risk of activity failure and the possible pursuit of alternative technologies. We find optimal solutions to the scheduling problem by means of stochastic dynamic programming. Our algorithms prescribe which alternatives need to be explored, and how they should be scheduled. We also examine the impact of the variability of the activity durations on the project’s value.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | Project planning with alternative technologies in uncertain environments |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.11.014 |
| Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2014.11.014 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This licence allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licences are available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0. |
| Keywords: | Project scheduling, Uncertainty, Net present value, Alternative technologies, Stochastic activity durations |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > UCL School of Management |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1466598 |
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