Theocharis, Z;
Harvey, N;
(2016)
Order effects in judgmental forecasting.
International Journal of Forecasting
, 32
(1)
pp. 44-60.
10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007.
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Abstract
In two experiments, forecasters produced a sequence of five forecasts from different types of time series, either from the nearest horizon to the most distant one (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) or in one of two other orders, both of which required the forecast for the most distant horizon to be made first (‘end-anchoring’). These latter two orders differed in terms of the direction of the remaining forecasts: either a horizon-increasing order (1, 2, 3, 4) or a horizon-decreasing one (4, 3, 2, 1). End-anchoring improved the forecast accuracy, especially for more distant horizons, and resulted in the trajectory of the forecast sequence being closer to the optimal one. The direction of forecasting after end-anchoring affected the forecast quality only when the optimal trajectory of the forecast sequence displayed a strong nonlinearity. End-anchoring provides a simple means of enhancing judgmental forecasts when predictions for a number of horizons are being produced from each series.
Type: | Article |
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Title: | Order effects in judgmental forecasting |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007 |
Publisher version: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.007 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | Copyright © 2015 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. This manuscript version is made available under This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial Non-derivative 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). This license allows you to share, copy, distribute and transmit the work for personal and non-commercial use providing author and publisher attribution is clearly stated. Further details about CC BY licenses are available at http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0. Access may be intiially restricted by the publisher. |
Keywords: | Judgmental forecasting, Time series, Forecasting practice, Evaluating forecasts, Forecasting education |
UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Brain Sciences > Div of Psychology and Lang Sciences > Experimental Psychology |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1463530 |
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