Why are travel demand forecasts so often wrong (and does it matter)?
Presented at: Proceedings of the 30th UTSG Annual Conference, Trinity College, Dublin.
|Type:||Conference item (UNSPECIFIED)|
|Title:||Why are travel demand forecasts so often wrong (and does it matter)?|
|Event:||Proceedings of the 30th UTSG Annual Conference, Trinity College, Dublin|
|Additional information:||The theme of this paper is the examination of the quality of the outputs from the travel demand modelling process. Three topics are considered: the British national road traffic forecasts, local traffic forecasts, and forecasts used in the development of new urban public transport systems. Examples are taken from Great Britain and the United States. The forecasts are generally poor, and those that are good may be more due to coincidence than modelling skill. A number of reasons for the poor quality of the forecasts are put forward and some suggestions for improvement made|
|Keywords:||Britain, British, demand, development, Examination, forecasting, Great Britain, MODELS, process, processes, Public Transport, quality, road, roads, States, traffic, transport, travel demand, urban|
|UCL classification:||UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering
Archive Staff Only