Heydecker, BG and Wu, J (2001) Identification of sites for road accident remedial work by Bayesian statistical methods: an example of uncertain inference. ADVANCES IN ENGINEERING SOFTWARE , 32 (10-11) 859 - 869.
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Road accident remedial work can be effected in many cases by implementing low cost engineering measures. These are intended to restore the safety performance of sites to which they are applied to prevailing levels according to their kind, traffic flows and design. This approach is, therefore, appropriate to sites where the mean accident frequency exceeds a standard value for that site. In this paper, we present several analyses that provide quantitative but uncertain indications of which sites should be considered for this kind of treatment according to their accident record. We describe four measures that are informative in this respect - the count of accidents, an estimate of the mean accident frequency, the amount by which this estimate exceeds a standard value, and the probability that it does so. We illustrate the use of these analyses by applying them to a dataset of accident records of priority controlled road junctions and compare the results of using the different measures. (C) 2001 Civil-Comp Ltd and Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
|Title:||Identification of sites for road accident remedial work by Bayesian statistical methods: an example of uncertain inference|
|Keywords:||Bayesian, log-linear model, mean frequency, road accidents, road safety|
|UCL classification:||UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering|
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