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Limited foresight

Lilico, A; (2004) Limited foresight. Doctoral thesis , University of London. Green open access

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Abstract

This thesis is about multi-period problems in which the decision-maker or players cannot see far enough ahead to solve the problem completely. The thesis considers why it might be that players reason forwards at all, let alone reasoning forwards only finitely far. It shows, using finite automata, that there is a class of problems for which forwards reasoning is more efficient than backwards reasoning. It goes on to use these finite automata to solve for an optimal foresight length. It then discusses solution concepts, and applies its preferred solution concept to two problems - one macro problem involving a central banker, and one micro problem concerning the decision whether to smoke.

Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Title: Limited foresight
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Language: English
Additional information: Thesis digitised by British Library EThOS.
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of SandHS > Dept of Economics
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1383526
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