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Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty

Bruno, RL; (2006) Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty. The Economics of Transition , 14 (1) 69 - 100. 10.1111/j.1468-0351.2006.00241.x.

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Abstract

In the 1990s - during the restructuring of large state enterprises - Central European economies experienced high unemployment. Social policy expenditures, particularly targeted to the non-employed, grew faster than expected due to the need to finance the out-of-the-labour categories. In 1992, after the Passive Labour Market Policies' reforms, the pace of transition decelerated. Unemployment dynamics, speed of transition and non-employment policies are modelled based on the assumption that the labour force is shrinking over time. Dismissed workers have the opportunity to choose an outside-option alternative to labour force participation. Individual uncertainty is assumed in a first phase of transition, while aggregate uncertainty - generating opposition to restructuring - is modelled in a second phase. The model predicts a slowdown in the speed of transition.

Type:Article
Title:Optimal speed of transition with a shrinking labour force and under uncertainty
Location:United Kingdom
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0351.2006.00241.x
Publisher version:http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2006.00241.x/abstract
Language:English
UCL classification:UCL > School of Arts and Social Sciences > SSEES (School of Slavonic and East European Studies)

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