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A Stab in the Dark? Analysing Temporal Trends of Street Robbery

Bowers, KJ; Tompson, L; (2012) A Stab in the Dark? Analysing Temporal Trends of Street Robbery. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency , Online First (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue) 10.1177/0022427812469114. (In press). Green open access

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Objectives: Test the influence of darkness in the street robbery crime event alongside temperature. Methods: Negative binomial regression models tested darkness and temperature as predictors of street robbery. Units of analysis were four 6-hr time intervals in two U.K. study areas that have different levels of darkness and variations of temperature throughout the year. Results: Darkness is a key factor related to robbery events in both study areas. Traversing from full daylight to full darkness increased the predicted volume of robbery by a multiple of 2.6 in London and 1.2 in Glasgow. Temperature was significant only in the London study area. Interaction terms did not enhance the predictive power of the models. Conclusion: Darkness is an important driving factor in seasonal variation of street robbery. A further implication of the research is that time of the day patterns are crucial to understanding seasonal trends in crime data.

Title:A Stab in the Dark? Analysing Temporal Trends of Street Robbery
Open access status:An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version:http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022427812469114
Additional information:© The Author(s) 2012
UCL classification:UCL > School of BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Security and Crime Science

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