Pereira, HM and Leadley, PW and Proença, V and Alkemade, R and Scharlemann, JP and Fernandez-Manjarrés, JF and Araújo, MB and Balvanera, P and Biggs, R and Cheung, WW and Chini, L and Cooper, HD and Gilman, EL and Guénette, S and Hurtt, GC and Huntington, HP and Mace, GM and Oberdorff, T and Revenga, C and Rodrigues, P and Scholes, RJ and Sumaila, UR and Walpole, M (2010) Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century. Science , 330 (6010) 1496 - 1501. 10.1126/science.1196624.
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Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.
|Title:||Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.|
|Keywords:||Animals, Aquatic Organisms, Biodiversity, Conservation of Natural Resources, Ecosystem, Extinction, Biological, Forecasting, Models, Biological, Plants, Policy, Population Dynamics|
|UCL classification:||UCL > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Life Sciences > Biosciences (Division of) > Genetics, Evolution and Environment|
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