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Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.

Baguelin, M; Hoschler, K; Stanford, E; Waight, P; Hardelid, P; Andrews, N; Miller, E; (2011) Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation. PLOS One , 6 (2) , Article e17074. 10.1371/journal.pone.0017074. Green open access

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Abstract

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5-14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1-4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.

Type: Article
Title: Age-specific incidence of A/H1N1 2009 influenza infection in England from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation.
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0017074
Publisher version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074
Language: English
Additional information: © 2011 Baguelin et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The testing of the serological samples was supported by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme (http://www.hta.ac.uk/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Keywords: Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Antibodies, Viral, Child, Child, Preschool, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Disease Outbreaks, England, Female, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype, Influenza, Human, Likelihood Functions, Male, Prevalence, Seroepidemiologic Studies, Time Factors, Young Adult
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > ICH Pop, Policy and Practice Prog
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1335573
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