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Joint Multivariate Response Modeling for Repeated BMI Measures and Single Measures of Adult Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors

Li, L; (2011) Joint Multivariate Response Modeling for Repeated BMI Measures and Single Measures of Adult Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors. In: (Proceedings) 2011 Joint Statistical Meeting. Green open access

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Abstract

Studies of the association between developmental trajectories and adult health require methods relating developmental measures from different life stages to single measures of health outcomes. We present a joint multivariate response model to a longitudinal response variable, body mass index (BMI), and two single measure adult outcomes - systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), to investigate the association between BMI trajectories and adult cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. We adopt a linear spline model for repeated BMI measures to allow for distinct childhood and adult curves and separate models for SBP and HDL-C. The models are fitted simultaneously by assuming the joint distribution of random coefficients. The model is applied to the 1958 British Birth Cohort (n=17,000), whose BMI was recorded at six ages from 7 to 45y (16,820 with one or more measures) and SBP and HDL-C were measured at 45y. Results show that the rate of BMI gain in adulthood has a stronger association with SBP and HDL-C than the rate of BMI growth in childhood (p<0.05 for SBP in boys and for HDL-C in both genders). For SBP, the estimated correlation for the rate of adult BMI gain is 0.27 (95% CI: 0.23, 0.32) in males and 0.35 (0.31, 0.38) in females, compared to 0.22 (0.16, 0.27) and 0.18 (0.11, 0.25) respectively for the rate of childhood growth. For HDL-C the correlation is -0.43 (-0.48, -0.38) and -0.45 (-0.48, -0.41) for adult BMI gain compared to -0.14 (-0.17, -0.10) and -0.26 (-0.30, -0.22) for childhood growth. Furthermore, the rate of childhood growth is associated with adult outcomes, independent of adult BMI gain. Conclusions Joint multivariate response modeling is a useful approach for estimating the association between repeated exposure variables at different life stages and adult outcomes, therefore has important applications in the life-course epidemiology.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Joint Multivariate Response Modeling for Repeated BMI Measures and Single Measures of Adult Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors
Event: 2011 Joint Statistical Meeting
Location: Miami Beach, Florida
Dates: 30 Jul 2011-04 Aug 2011
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
Publisher version: http://www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2011/onlineprog...
Language: English
Keywords: BMI, disease, multivariate, RISK, Risk Factors
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Pop Health Sciences > UCL GOS Institute of Child Health > ICH Pop, Policy and Practice Prog
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1318438
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