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Modeling user return time using inhomogeneous poisson process

Akbari, M; Cetoli, A; Bragaglia, S; O’Harney, AD; Sloan, M; Wang, J; (2019) Modeling user return time using inhomogeneous poisson process. In: ECIR 2019: Advances in Information Retrieval. (pp. pp. 37-44). Springer: Cologne, Germany. Green open access

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Abstract

For Intelligent Assistants (IA), user activity is often used as a lag metric for user satisfaction or engagement. Conversely, predictive leading metrics for engagement can be helpful with decision making and evaluating changes in satisfaction caused by new features. In this paper, we propose User Return Time (URT), a fine grain metric for gauging user engagement. To compute URT, we model continuous inter-arrival times between users’ use of service via a log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP), a form of inhomogeneous Poisson process which captures the irregular variations in user usage rate and personal preferences typical of an IA. We show the effectiveness of the proposed approaches on predicting the return time of users on real-world data collected from an IA. Experimental results demonstrate that our model is able to predict user return times reasonably well and considerably better than strong baselines that make the prediction based on past utterance frequency.

Type: Proceedings paper
Title: Modeling user return time using inhomogeneous poisson process
Event: 41st European Conference on IR Research
ISBN-13: 9783030157180
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-15719-7_5
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15719-7_5
Additional information: This version is the author accepted manuscript. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions.
Keywords: User Return Time Prediction · Intelligent Assistant
UCL classification: UCL
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Engineering Science > Dept of Computer Science
URI: https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10079538
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