Feeney, SM;
Peiris, HV;
Williamson, AR;
Nissanke, SM;
Mortlock, DJ;
Alsing, J;
Scolnic, D;
(2019)
Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens.
Physical Review Letters
, 122
(6)
, Article 061105. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.061105.
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Abstract
The Hubble constant (H₀) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova distance ladder is in 3-σ tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents new physics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent H₀ estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon supernova sample yields an H₀ posterior near identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of ∼ 50 binary neutron star “standard sirens” (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.
Type: | Article |
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Title: | Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens |
Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
DOI: | 10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.061105 |
Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.122.061105 |
Language: | English |
Additional information: | This version is the version of record. For information on re-use, please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions. |
Keywords: | Gravitation, Cosmology & Astrophysics |
UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL BEAMS > Faculty of Maths and Physical Sciences > Dept of Physics and Astronomy |
URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10070063 |
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