Chainey, S; Monteiro, J; (2019) The dispersion of crime concentration during a period of crime increase. Security Journal , 32 pp. 324-341. 10.1057/s41284-019-00165-x.

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Abstract

Extensive empirical evidence shows that crime concentrates in place, with these findings being important for helping to target police resources. Little is known, however, about whether these crime concentration areas are where crime increases the most during a period of crime increase. Using data from the seven largest cities in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, we show that during a period of crime increase the locations most responsible for the increases were the micro-places where crime previously concentrated. We argue that the increases in crime in areas of crime concentration were mainly due to these places offering stable favourable conditions for crime. The study introduces a simple index – the Crime Concentration Dispersion Index - that helps police agencies determine where to target resources during a period of crime increase and offers results that provide an important Latin American urban perspective to the literature on crime concentration.

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