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Patient-specific prediction of functional recovery after stroke

Douiri, A; Grace, J; Sarker, S-J; Tilling, K; McKevitt, C; Wolfe, CDA; Rudd, AG; (2017) Patient-specific prediction of functional recovery after stroke. International Journal of Stroke , 12 (5) pp. 539-548. 10.1177/1747493017706241. Green open access

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Abstract

Background and aims Clinical predictive models for stroke recovery could offer the opportunity of targeted early intervention and more specific information for patients and carers. In this study, we developed and validated a patient-specific prognostic model for monitoring recovery after stroke and assessed its clinical utility. Methods Four hundred and ninety-five patients from the population-based South London Stroke Register were included in a substudy between 2002 and 2004. Activities of daily living were assessed using Barthel Index) at one, two, three, four, six, eight, 12, 26, and 52 weeks after stroke. Penalized linear mixed models were developed to predict patients' functional recovery trajectories. An external validation cohort included 1049 newly registered stroke patients between 2005 and 2011. Prediction errors on discrimination and calibration were assessed. The potential clinical utility was evaluated using prognostic accuracy measurements and decision curve analysis. Results Predictive recovery curves showed good accuracy, with root mean squared deviation of 3 Barthel Index points and a R2 of 83% up to one year after stroke in the external cohort. The negative predictive values of the risk of poor recovery (Barthel Index <8) at three and 12 months were also excellent, 96% (95% CI [93.6-97.4]) and 93% [90.8-95.3], respectively, with a potential clinical utility measured by likelihood ratios (LR+:17 [10.8-26.8] at three months and LR+:11 [6.5-17.2] at 12 months). Decision curve analysis showed an increased clinical benefit, particularly at threshold probabilities of above 5% for predictive risk of poor outcomes. Conclusions A recovery curves tool seems to accurately predict progression of functional recovery in poststroke patients.

Type: Article
Title: Patient-specific prediction of functional recovery after stroke
Location: United States
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1177/1747493017706241
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1177/1747493017706241
Language: English
Additional information: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Keywords: Stroke, clinical prediction, functional recovery, monitoring, rehabilitation, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cohort Studies, Female, Humans, Linear Models, London, Male, Middle Aged, Precision Medicine, Prognosis, ROC Curve, Recovery of Function, Registries, Stroke, Stroke Rehabilitation, Time Factors, Young Adult
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > UCL Medical School
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10058575
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