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A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization

Glasner, P; Johnson, SD; Leitner, M; (2018) A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization. Crime Science , 7 , Article 9. 10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7. Green open access

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Abstract

In this paper, we introduce two methods to forecast apartment burglaries that are based on repeat and near repeat victimization. While the first approach, the “heuristic method” generates buffer areas around each new apartment burglary, the second approach concentrates on forecasting near repeat chain links. These near repeat chain links are events that follow a near repeat pair of an originating and (near) repeat event that is close in space and in time. We name this approach the “near repeat chain method”. This research analyzes apartment burglaries from November 2013 to November 2016 in Vienna, Austria. The overall research goal is to investigate whether the near repeat chain method shows better prediction efficiencies (using a capture rate and the prediction accuracy index) while producing fewer prediction areas. Results show that the near repeat chain method proves to be the more efficient compared to the heuristic method for all bandwidth combinations analyzed in this research.

Type: Article
Title: A comparative analysis to forecast apartment burglaries in Vienna, Austria, based on repeat and near repeat victimization
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7
Publisher version: http://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-018-0083-7
Language: English
Additional information: Copyright © The Author(s) 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
Keywords: Repeats, Near repeats, Burglary, Predictive mapping, Crime prevention, Vienna
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10056110
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