Gilhooly, DA;
Cole, M;
Moonesinghe, SR;
(2018)
The evaluation of risk prediction models in predicting outcomes after bariatric surgery: a prospective observational cohort pilot study.
Perioperative Medicine
, 7
, Article 6. 10.1186/s13741-018-0088-5.
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Abstract
Background: As the prevalence of obesity is increasing, the number of patients requiring surgical intervention for obesity-related illness is also rising. The aim of this pilot study was to explore predictors of short-term morbidity and longer-term poor weight loss after bariatric surgery. // Methods: This was a single-centre prospective observational cohort pilot study in patients undergoing bariatric surgery. We assessed the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of two previously validated risk prediction models (the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Morbidity and Mortality, POSSUM score, and the Obesity Surgical Mortality Risk Score, OS-MS) for postoperative outcome (postoperative morbidity defined using the Post Operative Morbidity Survey). We then tested the relationship between postoperative morbidity and longer-term weight loss outcome adjusting for known patient risk factors. // Results: Complete data were collected on 197 patients who underwent surgery for obesity or obesity-related illnesses between March 2010 and September 2013. Results showed POSSUM and OS-MRS were less accurate at predicting Post Operative Morbidity Survey (POMS)-defined morbidity on day 3 than defining prolonged length of stay due to poor mobility and/or POMS-defined morbidity. Having fewer than 28 days alive and out of hospital within 30 days of surgery was predictive of poor weight loss at 1 year, independent of POSSUM-defined risk (odds ratio 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.28–5.24). // Conclusions: POSSUM may be used to predict patients who will have prolonged postoperative LOS after bariatric surgery due to morbidity or poor mobility. However, independent of POSSUM score, having less than 28 days alive and out of hospital predicted poor weight loss outcome at 1 year. This adds to the literature that postoperative complications are independently associated with poor longer-term surgical outcomes.
| Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Title: | The evaluation of risk prediction models in predicting outcomes after bariatric surgery: a prospective observational cohort pilot study |
| Location: | England |
| Open access status: | An open access version is available from UCL Discovery |
| DOI: | 10.1186/s13741-018-0088-5 |
| Publisher version: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s13741-018-0088-5 |
| Language: | English |
| Additional information: | © The Author(s). 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
| Keywords: | Bariatric surgery, Morbid obesity, Postoperative complications, Risk assessment |
| UCL classification: | UCL UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Surgery and Interventional Sci UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > School of Life and Medical Sciences > Faculty of Medical Sciences > Div of Surgery and Interventional Sci > Department of Targeted Intervention |
| URI: | https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10053789 |
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