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Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions

Vikström, J; Ridder, G; Weidner, M; (2018) Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions. Journal of Econometrics , 205 (2) pp. 448-469. 10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.012. Green open access

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Abstract

This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.

Type: Article
Title: Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions
Open access status: An open access version is available from UCL Discovery
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.012
Publisher version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.11.012
Language: English
Additional information: © 2018 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) license.
Keywords: Partial identification, duration model, randomized experiment, treatment effect
UCL classification: UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH
UCL > Provost and Vice Provost Offices > UCL SLASH > Faculty of SandHS > Dept of Economics
URI: http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10038700
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